Hi people, long time no see!!

Apologies that I've not been around but practically all my spare time has gone into trying to cash in on the horses.

As yet unsuccessful, but you can be sure that if I do finally ever get there I will be looking to spread the wealth.

In any case, after reading about the 'Underdog Theorem' on our own eddiegetz blog some time back he very kindly offered to send me the book authored by himself.

A cracking good read it was too and with a seemingly consistent way of making each NFL season pay......providing that is, you have the balls!!

It's a chase system of sorts which relies upon the parity running throughout NFL.

After the first 2 game weeks when teams have had a chance to start either a winning or losing streak you then look to back against the undefeated teams and to back the winless.

In essence that is it although of course there are specific rules such as avoiding schedule conflicts and bets on a point spread fave where they are so far winless etc etc...

This will all become clear in due course anyway.

Judging by the lack of feedback here I assume there is not all that much interest???

Well the system is due to start this week (never starts before week 3) so if I'm wrong about that speak up and I'll post.

Otherwise.....well I guess I won't.....

I actually been waiting for this to become all clear in due course........

Im still interested, I thought there would of been more explaining of it. None the less, post up so i can see and follow it.....
thanks happygooner!!!

Oh there will be more explanation certainly....I'm just a first class procrastinator.

Like I said though the basic premise is backing a winless team and backing against a team without loss. This requires at last 2 weeks in order to establish the streak hence 3rd week is the first week any selections can be found.

I made a note of a potential teams last night but it's on my computer at home so will have to wait before posting that.

You then need to look for all potential conflicts in schedule which could see any of the winless teams play each other before week 9 and exclude those for time being. Same with the 2-0 teams as you need to make sure their is conflict in schedule.

I'm sure most people can probably work out who that leaves for this weekend. I only know from looking at Eddie's blog though as not really studied things in any great detail yet.

So I'm going to do the working out myself rather than rely on others. Will try and update tonight

nice to see you around gooner.. i'll be keeping an eye open on your system.

BOL with it.

Thanks Hilbert, I've been looking in here and then just not had anything to post or anytime to post it.

The system is all eddie's though so I can't take any credit. A bit of cash will suffice haha!

I will be very interested in it but would only follow at micro stakes to be honest, i have been burnt with chasing systems before, i just dont think they can work long term. But i would be interested in seeing how it goes :-)

__________________
Have a plan and stick to it

Know what you mean but it has worked for well over 10 years so...fingers crossed

Ok so here is a table detailing all the undefeated and winless teams up to the start of week 3:

Undefeated Teams Start of NFL Week 3
Team Wk3 Wk4 Wk5 Wk6 Wk7 Wk8
Arizona Cardinals WAS NYJ BUF X DAL X BYE CAR X
Baltimore Ravens CLE PIT X TEN X IND MIA OAK
Buffalo Bills OAK STL ARI X BYE SD MIA
Carolina Panthers MIN ATL KC TB NO ARI X
Dallas Cowboys GB X WAS CIN ARI X STL TB
Denver Broncos NO KC TB JAC NE X BYE
Green Bay Packers DAL X TB ATL SEA IND BYE
New England Patriots MIA BYE SF SD DEN X STL
New York Giants CIN BYE SEA CLE SF PIT X
Pittsburgh Steelers PHI BAL X JAC BYE CIN NYG X
Tennessee Titans HOU MIN BAL X BYE KC IND







Winless Teams Start of NFL Week 3
Team Wk3 Wk4 Wk5 Wk6 Wk7 Wk8
Cincinnati Bengals NYG CLE X DAL NYJ PIT HOU X
Cleveland Browns BAL CIN X BYE CLE WAS JAC
Detroit Lions SF BYE CHI MIN X HOU X WAS
Houston Texans TEN JAC X IND MIA X DET X CIN X
Jacksonville Jaguars IND HOU X PIT DEN BYE CLE X
Kansas City Chiefs ATL DEN CAR BYE TEN NYJ
Miami Dolphins NE BYE SD X HOU X BAL BUF
Minnesota Vikings CAR TEN NO DET X CHI BYE
San Diego Chargers NYJ OAK MIA X NE BUF NO
Seattle Seahawks STL X BYE NYG GB TB SF
St. Louis Rams SEA X BUF BYE WAS DAL NE

Apologies for this being so messed up but I don't know how to insert a table


These are the only teams the system can either back or back against. As soon as the they are no longer undefeated or winless they come out of the portfolio for another year.

Moving on...the system aims to avoid all schedule conflict between teams from either table before week 9.

so any teams with a big X next to their name cannot be played until that conflict is no longer there.

This leaves just KC for this week who will be backed ATS as a winless team. If they win they are out of the portfolio as they have effectively done their job and paid out for the year. Way to think of it is each team that enters the portfolio owes you and as soon as they've paid they disappear until next year.

If KC still lose but but beat the point spread they've paid a bonus but the system still expects more and they will stay in the portfolio for at least another week.

Start bank is £50.00 for this season (each bet to win 10%) and if anybody is going to get involved please be aware it is a chase system so balls of steel may be required!!

But....I have the book in front of me and it has documented 15 years of success based on the fact that no team since the 1972 dolphins has or ever will go undefeated. Same to be said for going all the way through and ending up winless.

Here we go then:

Kansas City Chiefs +5.5 @ 2.08 - £5.00 staked

Before I close up I'll quickly just mention that there are two variants of how to play this system. One which effectively doesn't chase after 3 losing bets and the other which keeps on going.

For this reason if following the all out one more than £50.00 may be required. Fingers crossed I don't have to make that decision but it's always a possibility.

That pretty much covers everything you need to know for this week. There will no doubt be more for me to go over for week 4.

Interesting. I thought Cleveland would be one but I see the X.
Good luck Happy!!!

A lot of teams now gone...

Undefeated Teams Start of NFL Week 4
Team Wk3 Wk4 Wk5 Wk6 Wk7 Wk8
Baltimore Ravens CLE PIT TEN X IND MIA OAK
Buffalo Bills OAK STL ARI BYE SD MIA
Dallas Cowboys GB WAS CIN ARI STL TB
Denver Broncos NO KC TB JAC NE BYE
New York Giants CIN BYE SEA CLE SF PIT
Tennessee Titans HOU MIN BAL X BYE KC IND



Winless Teams Start of NFL Week 4
Team Wk3 Wk4 Wk5 Wk6 Wk7 Wk8
Cincinnati Bengals NYG CLE X DAL NYJ PIT HOU X
Cleveland Browns BAL CIN X BYE CLE WAS JAC
Detroit Lions SF BYE CHI MIN HOU X WAS
Houston Texans TEN JAC IND MIA DET X CIN X
Kansas City Chiefs ATL DEN CAR BYE TEN NYJ
St. Louis Rams SEA BUF BYE WAS DAL NE

So what does that mean...?!

Well firstly it means that both BUF & STL now have no conflict with schedules so both qualify this week as undefeated and winless. 2 bets required this week - one backing against Buffalo & one backing St Louis.

As they play each other it's essentially double stake on the one game

Dallas play Washington who have numbers in both the wins and losses column. Therefore we back against Dallas as an undefeated team.

Denver play Kansas City....who we are already playing catch-up with

Kansas City is double stake to make up for last weeks loss and then we have to back against Denver......meaning that the system now has treble stake on those lousy Chiefs

Giants are on a bye so nothing doing there.

And that's it...back in a sec with bets

So first bet is £17.50 on Kansas City Chiefs +9.5 @ 1.90

Back later with the rest

Chiefs up 7 in the fourth so looking good

St Louis +8.5 @ 2.00 for £10.53
Washington +11.5 @ 1.84 for £6.27

Just realised I hadn't updated last weeks. Will do that in a bit.

Well, it's that time again where I sit down for a good 6-7 hours entertainment and hopefully make some money

Undefeated Teams Start of NFL Week 5
Team Wk3 Wk4 Wk5 Wk6 Wk7 Wk8
Buffalo Bills OAK STL ARI BYE SD MIA
New York Giants CIN BYE SEA CLE SF PIT
Tennessee Titans HOU MIN BAL BYE KC IND







Winless Teams Start of NFL Week 5
Team Wk3 Wk4 Wk5 Wk6 Wk7 Wk8
Cincinnati Bengals NYG CLE DAL NYJ PIT HOU X
Detroit Lions SF BYE CHI MIN HOU X WAS
Houston Texans TEN JAC IND MIA DET X CIN X
St. Louis Rams SEA BUF BYE WAS DAL NE


That's the updated table of remaining undefeated and winless teams. Bottom half not in play tonight as still schedule conflicts with all but Rams - who are on a bye.

The top half of the table has opened up completely so we bet against all undefeated teams.

Back in a sec with the suggested bets

Playing against Buffalo is already a chase from last week so we double up. I lost £10.53 last week which I will aim to get back along a little extra tonight.

Arizona are a small fave tonight which leads on to another little rule of thumb with this system. When an undefeated team is made underdog then we generally don't play them unless we are already on the chase like tonight. Reason being that we could take Arizona at -1.5 and they may well win by a point. Buffalo would be out of the portfolio for future weeks and rather than pay us what they owed (each team in the portfolio owes - that's the best way to think of it) they would have actually cost us.

As Buffalo have already cost us then we must try and get that back before they disappear out of the portfolio for the season.

Anyway Buffalo is a later game so I will leave that for now...

Betfair are really doing my head in with their point spreads making each side less than even. Can only get 1.74 on Seattle +7.5 at the moment so left it unmatched at 1.9

Official Suggested Early Bets

Seattle +7.5 (NYG undefeated)
Baltimore +2.5 (Tennessee undefeated) @ 1.9

Odds on Seattle to follow when I get matched...

Got 1.85 on Seattle in the end

+£14.96

So added to the first game where I lost £5.00 that's an overall profit of £9.96

botched...

-£5.53 so added to the overal total of +£9.96 it's now +£4.43